Spain vs Argentina: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Spainvs
ArgentinaThe model puts Spain at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Spain have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Argentina have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Spain have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Spain is priced at 2.374.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Spain at 41%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Argentina at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Spain is priced at 2.374. The draw is priced at 3.135. Argentina is priced at 3.63.
Spain have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Argentina have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Spain have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Spain are on 5 wins in a row. Argentina have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Argentina are on 5 wins in a row.
Spain average 2 goals per game this season. Spain average 69% possession. Argentina average 3 goals per game this season. Argentina average 69% possession.
The model gives 78% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Spain or Argentina?
Our model rates Spain as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Spain vs Argentina?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 3 Spain wins, 0 draws, 2 Argentina wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.