Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Qarabagvs
CSKA SofiaThe model puts Qarabag at 58%. The model leans toward Qarabag. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours CSKA Sofia (1-0-2).
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Qarabag have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Qarabag is priced at 1.61.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Qarabag at 58%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts CSKA Sofia at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Qarabag. Qarabag is priced at 1.61. The draw is priced at 3.8. CSKA Sofia is priced at 5.33.
Qarabag have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. CSKA Sofia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Qarabag have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. CSKA Sofia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Qarabag or CSKA Sofia?
Our model rates Qarabag as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Qarabag wins, 0 draws, 2 CSKA Sofia wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.