Scotland. League Cup

Ayr United vs Edinburgh FC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Ayr Unitedvs

Edinburgh FC

Our predictionAyr United to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Ayr United at 79%. The model leans toward Ayr United. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Ayr United.
+The head-to-head record favours Ayr United (3-0-0).

Win probabilities

1 · Ayr United79%Draw15%2 · Edinburgh FC6%

1 · Ayr UnitedDraw2 · Edinburgh FC

Full team comparison →

Team strength rating

Ayr United

Edinburgh FC

Recent form

Ayr UnitedWWWWW

Edinburgh FCWLDLD

Most likely scorelines

2-018.9%

1-016.0%

3-014.9%

4-08.8%

0-06.8%

2-16.2%

Expected goals

2.37Ayr United

0.33Edinburgh FC

Over 2.5 goals51%

Both teams to score25%

Match DNA

Ayr United Edinburgh FC

Key points

Ayr United have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
Edinburgh FC have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Ayr United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Ayr United is priced at 1.167.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Ayr United win1.17Fair (+1.3%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	2
1	16	5
2	19	6	1
3	15	5
4	9	3
5	4	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Ayr United1.17+1.3%

1X2Edinburgh FC14.40-0.4%

1X2Draw5.75-0.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Ayr United at 79%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Edinburgh FC at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Ayr United. Ayr United is priced at 1.167. The draw is priced at 5.75. Edinburgh FC is priced at 14.4.

Ayr United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.

Ayr United have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Ayr United are on 5 wins in a row. Edinburgh FC have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 51% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →