Scotland. League Cup

Airdrieonians vs Annan Athletic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Airdrieoniansvs

Annan Athletic

Our predictionAirdrieonians to win

Model score: High · 63/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Airdrieonians at 62%. The model leans toward Airdrieonians. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Annan Athletic.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Airdrieonians62%Draw20%2 · Annan Athletic18%

1 · AirdrieoniansDraw2 · Annan Athletic

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Annan Athletic5.95+2.5%

1X2Draw4.40-0.3%

1X2Airdrieonians1.42-2.2%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

AirdrieoniansLLLLD

Annan AthleticLLWDW

Team strength rating

Airdrieonians

Annan Athletic

Most likely scorelines

1-013.8%

2-013.5%

1-19.5%

2-19.4%

3-08.9%

0-07.0%

Expected goals

1.97Airdrieonians

0.69Annan Athletic

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score43%

Match DNA

Airdrieonians Annan Athletic

Key points

Airdrieonians have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Annan Athletic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Airdrieonians have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Airdrieonians is priced at 1.42.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Airdrieonians win1.42Fair (-2.2%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	5	2
1	14	10	3
2	14	9	3
3	9	6	2
4	4	3	1
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Airdrieonians at 62%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Annan Athletic at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Airdrieonians. Airdrieonians is priced at 1.42. The draw is priced at 4.4. Annan Athletic is priced at 5.95.

Airdrieonians have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Annan Athletic have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.

Airdrieonians have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Annan Athletic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →