Alloa Athletic vs Stranraer: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alloa Athleticvs
StranraerThe model puts Alloa Athletic at 56%. The model leans toward Alloa Athletic. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Alloa Athletic.
- +The head-to-head record favours Alloa Athletic (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Alloa Athletic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stranraer have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alloa Athletic have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Alloa Athletic is priced at 1.7.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Alloa Athletic at 56%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Stranraer at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Alloa Athletic. Alloa Athletic is priced at 1.7. The draw is priced at 3.62. Stranraer is priced at 4.265.
Alloa Athletic have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Stranraer have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Alloa Athletic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Stranraer have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alloa Athletic or Stranraer?
Our model rates Alloa Athletic as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alloa Athletic vs Stranraer?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Alloa Athletic wins, 0 draws, 2 Stranraer wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Alloa Athletic
- 1Stewart R.
- 2Taggart S.
- 5Easdon
- 6Marchant
- 7Glasgow
- 10Rankin
- 12Scougall
- 14McCafferty
- 17Cameron
- 20O'Donnell
- 24Foster
Stranraer
- 1Currie M.
- 2Dunn
- 5Nair
- 8Quigg
- 11Healy
- 12Traynor
- 14Bruce
- 15Hughes
- 16Dobbie
- 21Gilli
- 22Coll B.
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 4 |  Queen of the South | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.