Hamilton Academical vs Raith Rovers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hamilton Academicalvs
Raith RoversThe model puts Raith Rovers at 52%. The model leans toward Raith Rovers. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Raith Rovers.
- −The head-to-head record favours Hamilton Academical (4-2-0).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Hamilton Academical have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Raith Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hamilton Academical have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Raith Rovers is priced at 1.77.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Hamilton Academical at 25%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Raith Rovers at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Raith Rovers. Hamilton Academical is priced at 3.885. The draw is priced at 3.6. Raith Rovers is priced at 1.77.
Hamilton Academical have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Hamilton Academical have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Raith Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Raith Rovers are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hamilton Academical or Raith Rovers?
Our model rates Raith Rovers as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hamilton Academical vs Raith Rovers?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Hamilton Academical wins, 2 draws, 0 Raith Rovers wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Hamilton Academical
- 2Comrie A.
- 3Gallacher T.
- 6Blues C.
- 7Thomas Dom.
- 8MacDonald
- 11Orsi K.
- 12Линесс
- 15Newbury
- 16Smutek
- 27McKinstry
- 33Hendrie
Raith Rovers
- 1Ray
- 2Rowe Ja.
- 3Delaney Z.
- 5Fordyce C.
- 8Turner Ky.
- 10Vaughan Lew.
- 11Robertson
- 21Telfer
- 22Millen R.
- 23Easton D.
- 25Montagu K.
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 4 |  Queen of the South | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.