Scotland. League Cup

East Kilbride vs Dumbarton: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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East Kilbridevs

Dumbarton

Our predictionEast Kilbride to win

Model score: High · 85/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts East Kilbride at 72%. The model leans toward East Kilbride. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Dumbarton (1-1-4).

Win probabilities

1 · East Kilbride72%Draw16%2 · Dumbarton12%

1 · East KilbrideDraw2 · Dumbarton

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Dumbarton9.00+2.3%

1X2Draw5.50-0.6%

1X2East Kilbride1.24-1.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

East KilbrideLWLLL

DumbartonLLDLL

Team strength rating

East Kilbride

Dumbarton

Most likely scorelines

2-016.2%

1-014.9%

3-011.8%

2-18.2%

1-17.5%

0-06.9%

Expected goals

2.17East Kilbride

0.50Dumbarton

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score35%

Match DNA

East Kilbride Dumbarton

Key points

East Kilbride have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Dumbarton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
East Kilbride have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
East Kilbride is priced at 1.24.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2East Kilbride win1.24Fair (-1.7%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	3
1	15	8	2
2	16	8	2
3	12	6	1
4	6	3
5	3	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts East Kilbride at 72%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Dumbarton at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward East Kilbride. East Kilbride is priced at 1.24. The draw is priced at 5.5. Dumbarton is priced at 9.

East Kilbride have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Dumbarton have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

East Kilbride have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dumbarton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →