Scotland. League Cup

St. Johnstone vs Greenock Morton: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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St. Johnstonevs

Greenock Morton

Our predictionSt. Johnstone to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts St. Johnstone at 83%. The model leans toward St. Johnstone. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Greenock Morton.
−The head-to-head record favours Greenock Morton (0-1-5).

Win probabilities

1 · St. Johnstone83%Draw8%2 · Greenock Morton9%

1 · St. JohnstoneDraw2 · Greenock Morton

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Greenock Morton33.00+6.6%

1X2Draw10.20-0.7%

1X2St. Johnstone1.02-5.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

St. JohnstoneLWDDL

Greenock MortonWWWWW

Team strength rating

St. Johnstone

Greenock Morton

Most likely scorelines

2-018.9%

1-016.0%

3-014.9%

4-08.8%

0-06.8%

2-16.2%

Expected goals

2.37St. Johnstone

0.33Greenock Morton

Over 2.5 goals51%

Both teams to score25%

Match DNA

St. Johnstone Greenock Morton

Key points

St. Johnstone have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Greenock Morton have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Johnstone is priced at 1.019.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2St. Johnstone win1.02Avoid (-5.9%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	2
1	16	5
2	19	6	1
3	15	5
4	9	3
5	4	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts St. Johnstone at 83%. The model puts the draw at 8%. The model puts Greenock Morton at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward St. Johnstone. St. Johnstone is priced at 1.019. The draw is priced at 10.2. Greenock Morton is priced at 33.

Greenock Morton have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

St. Johnstone have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Greenock Morton have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Greenock Morton are on 5 wins in a row.

The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 51% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →