Scotland. League Cup

Livingston vs Partick Thistle: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Livingstonvs

Partick Thistle

Our predictionLivingston to win

Model score: Medium · 36/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Livingston at 47%. The model leans toward Livingston. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Partick Thistle (1-2-3).

Win probabilities

1 · Livingston47%Draw27%2 · Partick Thistle26%

1 · LivingstonDraw2 · Partick Thistle

Full team comparison →

Recent form

LivingstonWLDLD

Partick ThistleWLWLW

Team strength rating

Livingston

Partick Thistle

Most likely scorelines

1-011.9%

1-111.7%

2-09.8%

2-19.6%

0-07.2%

0-17.1%

Expected goals

1.64Livingston

0.98Partick Thistle

Over 2.5 goals49%

Both teams to score50%

Match DNA

Livingston Partick Thistle

Key points

Livingston have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Partick Thistle have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Livingston have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Livingston is priced at 1.929.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Livingston win1.93Fair (-0.6%)

Double chanceLivingston or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	7	3	1
1	12	12	6	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	5	5	3
4	2	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Partick Thistle3.69+1.5%

1X2Livingston1.93-0.6%

1X2Draw3.22-0.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Livingston at 47%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Partick Thistle at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Livingston. Livingston is priced at 1.929. The draw is priced at 3.22. Partick Thistle is priced at 3.695.

Livingston have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Partick Thistle have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Livingston have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Partick Thistle have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →