Elgin City vs Kilmarnock: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Elgin Cityvs
KilmarnockThe model puts Kilmarnock at 83%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Kilmarnock is priced at 1.076.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 18 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Elgin City at 6%. The model puts the draw at 11%. The model puts Kilmarnock at 83%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Kilmarnock. Elgin City is priced at 18. The draw is priced at 7.9. Kilmarnock is priced at 1.076.
The model gives 24% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Elgin City or Kilmarnock?
Our model rates Kilmarnock as the most likely outcome at 83% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Elgin City vs Kilmarnock?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Elgin City
- 1Rhichey
- 2Neill Mo.
- 5Girvan K.
- 6Murray
- 7Dingwall R.
- 9Hester K.
- 10Gallagher
- 17Willox
- 22MacIver S.
- 23Grant
- 26Booth
Kilmarnock
- 1Stryjek
- 2Brandan
- 6Deas R.
- 9Hugill
- 11Kiltie
- 18Lowery
- 21Schjonning-Larsen
- 23Maturin
- 25Schilte-Brown
- 27Owen
- 49Rice
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 4 |  Queen of the South | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.