Dundee United vs Arbroath: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dundee Unitedvs
ArbroathThe model puts Dundee United at 64%. The model leans toward Dundee United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Dundee United.
- −The head-to-head record favours Arbroath (0-1-5).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dundee United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arbroath have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dundee United is priced at 1.43.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Dundee United at 64%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Arbroath at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Dundee United. Dundee United is priced at 1.43. The draw is priced at 4.25. Arbroath is priced at 6.06.
Arbroath have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Dundee United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Dundee United are on 2 wins in a row. Arbroath have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dundee United or Arbroath?
Our model rates Dundee United as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dundee United vs Arbroath?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Dundee United wins, 1 draws, 5 Arbroath wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Dundee United
- 1Walton
- 3Esselink
- 5Sevelj
- 9Sapsford
- 10Tait D.
- 11Ferry W.
- 12Agyei
- 18Forbes
- 21Randall
- 23Rawlins
- 93Metsoko
Arbroath
- 1Mcadams
- 2Morrison St.
- 4Paterson
- 5O'Brien T.
- 6Beadling
- 8Flynn R.
- 9Winter An.
- 11Dow
- 12Stewart
- 14McKenna M.
- 15McGill
Match story
How the game unfoldedNo goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–0)
Half-time score: Dundee United 0 – 0 Arbroath.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–0)
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Queen of the South | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.