Egnatia vs Celje: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Egnatiavs
CeljeThe model puts Celje at 43%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Celje is priced at 2.15.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Egnatia at 29%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Celje at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Celje. Egnatia is priced at 3.25. The draw is priced at 3.4. Celje is priced at 2.15.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Egnatia or Celje?
Our model rates Celje as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Egnatia vs Celje?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.