Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sturm Grazvs
Heart of MidlothianThe model puts Sturm Graz at 50%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sturm Graz is priced at 1.9.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sturm Graz at 50%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Heart of Midlothian at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz is priced at 1.9. The draw is priced at 3.55. Heart of Midlothian is priced at 3.85.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sturm Graz or Heart of Midlothian?
Our model rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.