Red Bull Bragantino vs Coritiba: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Red Bull Bragantinovs
CoritibaThe model puts Red Bull Bragantino at 61%. The model leans toward Red Bull Bragantino. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Red Bull Bragantino.
- +Red Bull Bragantino score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Coritiba (1-1-4).
- +Red Bull Bragantino creates more chances (16 vs 10 shots per game).
- +Red Bull Bragantino controls more of the ball (52% vs 38%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Red Bull Bragantino have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Coritiba have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Red Bull Bragantino have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Red Bull Bragantino is priced at 1.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Red Bull Bragantino at 61%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Coritiba at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Red Bull Bragantino. Red Bull Bragantino is priced at 1.63. The draw is priced at 3.84. Coritiba is priced at 5.55.
Red Bull Bragantino have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Coritiba have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Red Bull Bragantino have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Coritiba have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Red Bull Bragantino average 2 goals per game this season. Red Bull Bragantino average 52% possession. Coritiba average 1 goals per game this season. Coritiba average 38% possession.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Red Bull Bragantino or Coritiba?
Our model rates Red Bull Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Red Bull Bragantino vs Coritiba?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Red Bull Bragantino wins, 1 draws, 4 Coritiba wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 33:14 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 35:16 | 37 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26:19 | 33 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:24 | 32 |
| 5 | Red Bull Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 26:20 | 30 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28:24 | 30 |
| 7 |  Corinthians Paulista | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21:19 | 27 |
| 8 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 27 |
| 9 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 33:32 | 26 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25:27 | 26 |
| 11 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 22:25 | 26 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 24:22 | 25 |
| 13 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23:24 | 25 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 22:24 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 27:31 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 21:25 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 22:30 | 20 |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 20:25 | 19 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 21:32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17:39 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.