CR Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CR Vasco da Gamavs
MirassolThe model puts CR Vasco da Gama at 47%. The model leans toward CR Vasco da Gama. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Mirassol.
- +CR Vasco da Gama creates more chances (19 vs 11 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours CR Vasco da Gama (3-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- CR Vasco da Gama have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mirassol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CR Vasco da Gama have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CR Vasco da Gama is priced at 2.05.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CR Vasco da Gama at 47%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Mirassol at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward CR Vasco da Gama. CR Vasco da Gama is priced at 2.05. The draw is priced at 3.36. Mirassol is priced at 3.74.
CR Vasco da Gama have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
CR Vasco da Gama have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Mirassol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
CR Vasco da Gama average 1 goals per game this season. CR Vasco da Gama average 56% possession. Mirassol average 1 goals per game this season. Mirassol average 52% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CR Vasco da Gama or Mirassol?
Our model rates CR Vasco da Gama as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CR Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 3 CR Vasco da Gama wins, 0 draws, 0 Mirassol wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 33:14 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 35:16 | 37 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26:19 | 33 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 26:20 | 30 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28:24 | 30 |
| 7 |  Corinthians Paulista | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21:19 | 27 |
| 8 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 27 |
| 9 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 33:32 | 26 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25:27 | 26 |
| 11 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 22:25 | 26 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 24:22 | 25 |
| 13 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23:24 | 25 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 22:24 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 27:31 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 21:25 | 21 |
| 17 | CR Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 22:30 | 20 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 20:25 | 19 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 21:32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17:39 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.