Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras vs Clube Atletico Mineiro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeirasvs
Clube Atletico MineiroThe model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 56%. The model leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Clube Atletico Mineiro.
- −The head-to-head record favours Clube Atletico Mineiro (1-1-4).
- +Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras creates more chances (15 vs 13 shots per game).
- −Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Clube Atletico Mineiro are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Clube Atletico Mineiro have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras will be without Barboza Al., Sosa, Roque V., Silva Oliveira K.D..
- Clube Atletico Mineiro will be without Minda, Patrick Roberto da Silva Campos, Duarte da Silva L., Indio, Preciado, Franco A..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 56%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Clube Atletico Mineiro at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 1.68. The draw is priced at 3.6. Clube Atletico Mineiro is priced at 5.5.
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Clube Atletico Mineiro have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Clube Atletico Mineiro have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 2 goals per game this season. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 50% possession. Clube Atletico Mineiro average 1 goals per game this season. Clube Atletico Mineiro average 50% possession.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras or Clube Atletico Mineiro?
Our model rates Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras vs Clube Atletico Mineiro?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras wins, 1 draws, 4 Clube Atletico Mineiro wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 33:14 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 35:16 | 37 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26:19 | 33 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 26:20 | 30 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28:24 | 30 |
| 7 |  Corinthians Paulista | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21:19 | 27 |
| 8 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 27 |
| 9 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 33:32 | 26 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25:27 | 26 |
| 11 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 22:25 | 26 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 24:22 | 25 |
| 13 | Clube Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23:24 | 25 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 22:24 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 27:31 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 21:25 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 22:30 | 20 |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 20:25 | 19 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 21:32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17:39 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.