Cruzeiro Esporte Clube vs Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cruzeiro Esporte Clubevs
Botafogo de Futebol e RegatasThe model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 54%. The model leans toward Cruzeiro Esporte Clube. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube creates more chances (15 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head record favours Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas (1-2-3).
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube controls more of the ball (58% vs 47%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 1.79.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 54%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Cruzeiro Esporte Clube. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 1.79. The draw is priced at 3.68. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas is priced at 4.46.
Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cruzeiro Esporte Clube average 2 goals per game this season. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube average 58% possession. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 2 goals per game this season. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 47% possession.
The model gives 64% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cruzeiro Esporte Clube or Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas?
Our model rates Cruzeiro Esporte Clube as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cruzeiro Esporte Clube vs Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Cruzeiro Esporte Clube wins, 2 draws, 3 Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 33:14 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 35:16 | 37 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26:19 | 33 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 26:20 | 30 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28:24 | 30 |
| 7 |  Corinthians Paulista | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21:19 | 27 |
| 8 | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26:29 | 27 |
| 9 | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 33:32 | 26 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25:27 | 26 |
| 11 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 22:25 | 26 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 24:22 | 25 |
| 13 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23:24 | 25 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 22:24 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 27:31 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 21:25 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 22:30 | 20 |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 20:25 | 19 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 21:32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17:39 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.