Defensa y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Defensa y Justiciavs
Deportivo RiestraThe model puts Defensa y Justicia at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Deportivo Riestra.
- +The head-to-head record favours Defensa y Justicia (1-3-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Defensa y Justicia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Defensa y Justicia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Defensa y Justicia will be without Banega.
- Deportivo Riestra will be without Barbieri.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Defensa y Justicia at 41%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Deportivo Riestra at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Defensa y Justicia is priced at 2.282. The draw is priced at 2.894. Deportivo Riestra is priced at 3.715.
Defensa y Justicia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Defensa y Justicia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Riestra have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Riestra are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Defensa y Justicia or Deportivo Riestra?
Our model rates Defensa y Justicia as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Defensa y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Defensa y Justicia wins, 3 draws, 0 Deportivo Riestra wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Riestra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Newell's Old Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Union de Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  Platense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 12 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.