Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata vs River Plate Buenos Aires: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Platavs
River Plate Buenos AiresThe model puts River Plate Buenos Aires at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata.
- −The head-to-head record favours Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- River Plate Buenos Aires have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- River Plate Buenos Aires is priced at 2.168.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata at 30%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts River Plate Buenos Aires at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward River Plate Buenos Aires. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata is priced at 3.785. The draw is priced at 3.05. River Plate Buenos Aires is priced at 2.168.
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. River Plate Buenos Aires have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata are on 2 wins in a row. River Plate Buenos Aires have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata or River Plate Buenos Aires?
Our model rates River Plate Buenos Aires as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata vs River Plate Buenos Aires?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata wins, 1 draws, 1 River Plate Buenos Aires wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Riestra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Newell's Old Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Union de Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  Platense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 10 |  Defensa y Justicia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 12 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.