CA Independiente Avellaneda vs Newell's Old Boys: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CA Independiente Avellanedavs
Newell's Old BoysThe model puts CA Independiente Avellaneda at 54%. The model leans toward CA Independiente Avellaneda. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Newell's Old Boys.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- CA Independiente Avellaneda have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newell's Old Boys have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CA Independiente Avellaneda have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CA Independiente Avellaneda is priced at 1.68.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CA Independiente Avellaneda at 54%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Newell's Old Boys at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward CA Independiente Avellaneda. CA Independiente Avellaneda is priced at 1.68. The draw is priced at 3.54. Newell's Old Boys is priced at 5.7.
CA Independiente Avellaneda have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Newell's Old Boys have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
CA Independiente Avellaneda have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Newell's Old Boys have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Newell's Old Boys are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CA Independiente Avellaneda or Newell's Old Boys?
Our model rates CA Independiente Avellaneda as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CA Independiente Avellaneda vs Newell's Old Boys?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 CA Independiente Avellaneda wins, 1 draws, 2 Newell's Old Boys wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Defensa y Justicia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Riestra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 3 | CA Independiente Avellaneda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 | Newell's Old Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Union de Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 12 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.