Mariehamn vs AC Oulu: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mariehamnvs
AC OuluThe model puts AC Oulu at 59%. The model leans toward AC Oulu. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours AC Oulu (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Mariehamn have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AC Oulu have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mariehamn have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AC Oulu is priced at 1.61.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mariehamn at 19%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts AC Oulu at 59%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward AC Oulu. Mariehamn is priced at 5.02. The draw is priced at 4.05. AC Oulu is priced at 1.61.
Mariehamn have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. AC Oulu have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mariehamn have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. AC Oulu have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mariehamn or AC Oulu?
Our model rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Mariehamn wins, 0 draws, 4 AC Oulu wins.
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 29:15 | 33 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:12 | 31 |
| 3 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23:13 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 20:20 | 26 |
| 5 |  HJK | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 27:20 | 25 |
| 6 |  Gnistan | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 25:20 | 25 |
| 7 |  Lahti | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 20:15 | 22 |
| 8 |  Turun Palloseura | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 20:19 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ilves | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 18:25 | 14 |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 15:32 | 12 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 16 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8:35 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.