Libertad Loja vs Delfin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Libertad Lojavs
DelfinThe model puts Libertad Loja at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Libertad Loja have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Delfin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Libertad Loja have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Libertad Loja is priced at 2.233.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Libertad Loja at 42%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Delfin at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Libertad Loja is priced at 2.233. The draw is priced at 2.97. Delfin is priced at 3.51.
Libertad Loja have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Delfin have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Libertad Loja have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Delfin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Libertad Loja or Delfin?
Our model rates Libertad Loja as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Libertad Loja vs Delfin?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Libertad Loja wins, 3 draws, 1 Delfin wins.
Odds movement
League table
Ecuador. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 49:20 | 49 |
| 2 |  SD Aucas | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 22:19 | 35 |
| 3 |  Barcelona Sporting Club | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 22:14 | 34 |
| 4 |  Universidad Catolica Quito | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 31:18 | 32 |
| 5 |  Club Social y Deportivo Macara | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 21:21 | 29 |
| 6 |  Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 19:16 | 28 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 19:23 | 28 |
| 8 |  Leones Del Norte | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 21:20 | 27 |
| 9 |  Emelec | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 17:23 | 27 |
| 10 |  Guayaquil City | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 18:22 | 26 |
| 11 |  Mushuc Runa | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 26:30 | 24 |
| 12 |  Tecnico Universitario | 20 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 19:21 | 23 |
| 13 |  Orense Sporting Club | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 23:28 | 23 |
| 14 | Delfin | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 13:19 | 23 |
| 15 | Libertad Loja | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 18:26 | 21 |
| 16 |  Manta | 20 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 7:25 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.