Lillestrom vs Viking: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lillestromvs
VikingThe model puts Viking at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lillestrom have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Viking have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lillestrom have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Viking is priced at 2.2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lillestrom at 31%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Viking at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Viking. Lillestrom is priced at 3.075. The draw is priced at 3.66. Viking is priced at 2.2.
Lillestrom have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Viking have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lillestrom have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lillestrom are on 3 wins in a row. Viking have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lillestrom or Viking?
Our model rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Viking?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Lillestrom wins, 1 draws, 3 Viking wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 26:15 | 31 |
| 2 | Viking | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 31:12 | 30 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 31:11 | 29 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21:12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Molde | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 6 |  Brann | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 28:22 | 19 |
| 7 |  HamKam | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 8 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14:16 | 18 |
| 9 |  Valerenga | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 19:22 | 17 |
| 10 |  Rosenborg | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15:18 | 15 |
| 11 |  Sandefjord | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 13:17 | 15 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 15:23 | 14 |
| 13 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 13:21 | 12 |
| 14 |  Aalesunds | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 18:28 | 12 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 11:21 | 12 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 14 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 14:33 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.