Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rosenborgvs
FredrikstadThe model puts Rosenborg at 54%. The model leans toward Rosenborg. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Fredrikstad.
- −Rosenborg are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Fredrikstad are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Rosenborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rosenborg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rosenborg will be without Nordli, Islamovic, Svensson Jon..
- Fredrikstad will be without Borsheim, Holm S., Ohlenschlaeger, Sorlokk, Kvile S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rosenborg at 54%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Fredrikstad at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Rosenborg. Rosenborg is priced at 1.665. The draw is priced at 3.98. Fredrikstad is priced at 4.92.
Rosenborg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Fredrikstad have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rosenborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Fredrikstad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Fredrikstad are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rosenborg or Fredrikstad?
Our model rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Rosenborg wins, 2 draws, 2 Fredrikstad wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo-Glimt | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 37:11 | 35 |
| 2 |  Viking | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34:14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 26:15 | 31 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 22:14 | 25 |
| 5 |  Molde | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 25:19 | 23 |
| 6 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 15:16 | 21 |
| 7 |  Valerenga | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 8 |  Brann | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 30:25 | 19 |
| 9 |  HamKam | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20:26 | 18 |
| 10 | Rosenborg | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15:18 | 15 |
| 11 |  Sandefjord | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 15:23 | 14 |
| 13 |  Aalesunds | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 19:29 | 13 |
| 14 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 15:25 | 12 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 15 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 16:34 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.