Sirius vs Goteborg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Siriusvs
GoteborgThe model puts Sirius at 67%. The model leans toward Sirius. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sirius.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sirius have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Goteborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sirius have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sirius is priced at 1.43.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sirius at 67%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Goteborg at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Sirius. Sirius is priced at 1.43. The draw is priced at 4.85. Goteborg is priced at 6.19.
Sirius have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Goteborg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sirius have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Sirius are on 2 wins in a row. Goteborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sirius or Goteborg?
Our model rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sirius vs Goteborg?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Sirius wins, 2 draws, 2 Goteborg wins.
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 36:16 | 35 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 32:14 | 26 |
| 3 |  Hacken | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 27:22 | 23 |
| 4 |  AIK | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18:18 | 21 |
| 5 |  Djurgardens | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26:15 | 20 |
| 6 |  Malmo | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 27:22 | 20 |
| 7 |  GAIS | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 8 |  Vasteras SK | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22:23 | 19 |
| 9 |  Elfsborg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18:17 | 18 |
| 10 |  Mjallby | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 19:17 | 17 |
| 11 |  Brommapojkarna | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18:21 | 16 |
| 12 |  Kalmar | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 13 | Goteborg | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16:29 | 13 |
| 14 |  Degerfors | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Orgryte | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14:31 | 10 |
| 16 |  Halmstads | 13 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 10:28 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.