CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CSKA Sofiavs
Botev PlovdivThe model puts CSKA Sofia at 59%. The model leans toward CSKA Sofia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours CSKA Sofia (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- CSKA Sofia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CSKA Sofia is priced at 1.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CSKA Sofia at 59%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Botev Plovdiv at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward CSKA Sofia. CSKA Sofia is priced at 1.63. The draw is priced at 3.74. Botev Plovdiv is priced at 5.2.
CSKA Sofia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Botev Plovdiv have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
CSKA Sofia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Botev Plovdiv have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CSKA Sofia or Botev Plovdiv?
Our model rates CSKA Sofia as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 CSKA Sofia wins, 1 draws, 1 Botev Plovdiv wins.
League table
Bulgaria. First League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Spartak Varna | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 3 |  CSKA Sofia 1948 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Arda Kardzhali | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 5 |  Ludogorets 1945 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 10 |  Botev Vratsa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 11 |  Slavia Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 12 |  Cherno More Varna | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:4 | 1 |
| 13 |  Septemvri Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Dunav Ruse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.