New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New York Red Bullsvs
CharlotteThe model puts New York Red Bulls at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Charlotte.
- +New York Red Bulls score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +New York Red Bulls creates more chances (13 vs 9 shots per game).
- +New York Red Bulls controls more of the ball (52% vs 43%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New York Red Bulls is priced at 2.22.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New York Red Bulls at 45%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Charlotte at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. New York Red Bulls is priced at 2.22. The draw is priced at 3.78. Charlotte is priced at 2.952.
New York Red Bulls have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Charlotte have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession. Charlotte average 1 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 43% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or Charlotte?
Our model rates New York Red Bulls as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 New York Red Bulls wins, 1 draws, 3 Charlotte wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.