CF Montreal vs Inter Miami: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CF Montrealvs
Inter MiamiThe model puts Inter Miami at 50%. The model leans toward Inter Miami. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Inter Miami score more per game (1.0 at home vs 3.0 away).
- +Recent form favours Inter Miami.
- +The head-to-head record favours Inter Miami (2-0-4).
- +Inter Miami controls more of the ball (45% vs 57%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- CF Montreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inter Miami have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CF Montreal have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Inter Miami is priced at 2.13.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CF Montreal at 29%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Inter Miami at 50%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Inter Miami. CF Montreal is priced at 2.975. The draw is priced at 4.04. Inter Miami is priced at 2.13.
CF Montreal have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Inter Miami have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
CF Montreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Inter Miami have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Inter Miami are on 4 wins in a row.
CF Montreal average 1 goals per game this season. CF Montreal average 45% possession. Inter Miami average 3 goals per game this season. Inter Miami average 57% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CF Montreal or Inter Miami?
Our model rates Inter Miami as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CF Montreal vs Inter Miami?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 CF Montreal wins, 0 draws, 4 Inter Miami wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.