New England Revolution vs Atlanta United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New England Revolutionvs
Atlanta UnitedThe model puts New England Revolution at 48%. The model leans toward New England Revolution. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +New England Revolution score more per game (2.0 at home vs 0.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Atlanta United (2-0-4).
- −Atlanta United creates more chances (11 vs 13 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New England Revolution have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New England Revolution is priced at 2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New England Revolution at 48%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Atlanta United at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward New England Revolution. New England Revolution is priced at 2. The draw is priced at 3.6. Atlanta United is priced at 3.62.
New England Revolution have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Atlanta United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
New England Revolution have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
New England Revolution average 2 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 51% possession. Atlanta United average 0 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 50% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New England Revolution or Atlanta United?
Our model rates New England Revolution as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New England Revolution vs Atlanta United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 New England Revolution wins, 0 draws, 4 Atlanta United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.