Los Angeles vs Sporting Kansas City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Los Angelesvs
Sporting Kansas CityThe model puts Los Angeles at 84%. The model leans toward Los Angeles. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Los Angeles.
- +Los Angeles score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Los Angeles (5-1-0).
- +Los Angeles creates more chances (14 vs 9 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Los Angeles have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Los Angeles is priced at 1.16.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 4 | ||||
| 2 | 18 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 11 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 6 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Los Angeles at 84%. The model puts the draw at 11%. The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Los Angeles. Los Angeles is priced at 1.16. The draw is priced at 7.8. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 15.
Los Angeles have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Los Angeles have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles are on 3 wins in a row. Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Los Angeles average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles average 47% possession. Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession.
The model gives 24% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Los Angeles or Sporting Kansas City?
Our model rates Los Angeles as the most likely outcome at 84% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Los Angeles vs Sporting Kansas City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Los Angeles wins, 1 draws, 0 Sporting Kansas City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 | Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.