Houston Dynamo vs Austin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Houston Dynamovs
AustinThe model puts Houston Dynamo at 62%. The model leans toward Houston Dynamo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Houston Dynamo creates more chances (13 vs 9 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Austin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.536.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Houston Dynamo at 62%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Austin at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.536. The draw is priced at 4.36. Austin is priced at 5.7.
Houston Dynamo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Austin have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Austin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Houston Dynamo average 1 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 40% possession. Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 41% possession.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Houston Dynamo or Austin?
Our model rates Houston Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Houston Dynamo vs Austin?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Houston Dynamo wins, 1 draws, 2 Austin wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 | Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.