San Diego vs Dallas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Diegovs
DallasThe model puts San Diego at 50%. The model leans toward San Diego. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +San Diego score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Recent form favours San Diego.
- +San Diego controls more of the ball (62% vs 42%).
- −The head-to-head record favours Dallas (0-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- San Diego have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dallas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Diego is priced at 2.08.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts San Diego at 50%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Dallas at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward San Diego. San Diego is priced at 2.08. The draw is priced at 3.92. Dallas is priced at 3.16.
Dallas have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
San Diego have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. San Diego are on 3 wins in a row. Dallas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Diego average 3 goals per game this season. San Diego average 62% possession. Dallas average 2 goals per game this season. Dallas average 42% possession.
The model gives 76% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Diego or Dallas?
Our model rates San Diego as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Diego vs Dallas?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 San Diego wins, 1 draws, 2 Dallas wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 | Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 | San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.