Minnesota United vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Minnesota Unitedvs
Vancouver WhitecapsThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 47%. The model leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Vancouver Whitecaps score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Minnesota United (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Minnesota United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 2.04.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Minnesota United at 30%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 47%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Minnesota United is priced at 3.38. The draw is priced at 3.74. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 2.04.
Minnesota United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Vancouver Whitecaps have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Minnesota United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Minnesota United average 1 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 50% possession. Vancouver Whitecaps average 2 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 55% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Minnesota United or Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Minnesota United vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Minnesota United wins, 1 draws, 1 Vancouver Whitecaps wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27:17 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:16 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22:25 | 20 |
| 10 |  St. Louis City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:22 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 27:29 | 17 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 16:39 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.