Rodina Moscow vs Rostov: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rodina Moscowvs
RostovThe model puts Rostov at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Rostov.
- +The head-to-head record favours Rostov (1-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Rodina Moscow have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rostov have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rodina Moscow have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rostov is priced at 2.385.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rodina Moscow at 31%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Rostov at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Rodina Moscow is priced at 2.965. The draw is priced at 3.36. Rostov is priced at 2.385.
Rodina Moscow have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Rostov have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Rodina Moscow have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Rostov have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rodina Moscow or Rostov?
Our model rates Rostov as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rodina Moscow vs Rostov?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Rodina Moscow wins, 0 draws, 2 Rostov wins.
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | Rostov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Orenburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Spartak Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Dynamo Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Rubin Kazan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Krylia Sovetov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Akhmat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Krasnodar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Fakel Voronezh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Akron Tolyatti | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.