Krasnodar vs Fakel Voronezh: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Krasnodarvs
Fakel VoronezhThe model puts Krasnodar at 75%. The model leans toward Krasnodar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Krasnodar.
- +The head-to-head record favours Krasnodar (2-4-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Krasnodar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fakel Voronezh have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Krasnodar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Krasnodar is priced at 1.288.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Krasnodar at 75%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Fakel Voronezh at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Krasnodar. Krasnodar is priced at 1.288. The draw is priced at 5.4. Fakel Voronezh is priced at 11.
Krasnodar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Krasnodar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Fakel Voronezh have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 30% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Krasnodar or Fakel Voronezh?
Our model rates Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Krasnodar vs Fakel Voronezh?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Krasnodar wins, 4 draws, 0 Fakel Voronezh wins.
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Rostov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Orenburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Spartak Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Dynamo Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Rubin Kazan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Krylia Sovetov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Akhmat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Krasnodar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Fakel Voronezh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Akron Tolyatti | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Rodina Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.