St. Mirren vs East Kilbride: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Mirrenvs
East KilbrideThe model puts St. Mirren at 77%. St. Mirren is priced at 1.115. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours East Kilbride.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Mirren have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- East Kilbride are on 3 wins in a row.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
- The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
St. Mirren have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. East Kilbride have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. East Kilbride are on 3 wins in a row.
The model puts St. Mirren at 77%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts East Kilbride at 11%.
The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0. The model gives 30% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
St. Mirren is priced at 1.115. East Kilbride is priced at 13.7.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Mirren or East Kilbride?
Our model rates St. Mirren as the most likely outcome at 77% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Mirren vs East Kilbride?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 St. Mirren wins, 0 draws, 1 East Kilbride wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Queen of the South | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.