Kilmarnock vs Hamilton Academical: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kilmarnockvs
Hamilton AcademicalThe model puts Kilmarnock at 75%. Kilmarnock have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Kilmarnock (6-0-0).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Kilmarnock is priced at 1.23.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
- The model gives 31% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Kilmarnock have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Kilmarnock have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
The model puts Kilmarnock at 75%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Hamilton Academical at 9%.
The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kilmarnock or Hamilton Academical?
Our model rates Kilmarnock as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kilmarnock vs Hamilton Academical?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 6 Kilmarnock wins, 0 draws, 0 Hamilton Academical wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Queen of the South | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.