Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tobol Kostanayvs
AtyrauThe model puts Tobol Kostanay at 51%. The model leans toward Tobol Kostanay. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tobol Kostanay.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tobol Kostanay have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atyrau have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tobol Kostanay have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tobol Kostanay is priced at 1.899.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tobol Kostanay at 51%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Atyrau at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tobol Kostanay. Tobol Kostanay is priced at 1.899. The draw is priced at 3.44. Atyrau is priced at 4.045.
Tobol Kostanay have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Atyrau have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tobol Kostanay have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Tobol Kostanay are on 2 wins in a row. Atyrau have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tobol Kostanay or Atyrau?
Our model rates Tobol Kostanay as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Tobol Kostanay wins, 3 draws, 1 Atyrau wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ordabasy | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 33:13 | 43 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 19 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 37:13 | 42 |
| 3 |  Okzhetpes | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 24:24 | 30 |
| 4 |  Astana | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 5 |  Aktobe | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 26:20 | 28 |
| 6 |  Ulytau | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 15:16 | 27 |
| 7 |  Elimai | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:22 | 26 |
| 8 |  Jenis | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 15:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Tobol Kostanay | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 20:26 | 19 |
| 10 |  Kaysar | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Atyrau | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13:16 | 18 |
| 12 |  Zhetysu | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:27 | 18 |
| 13 |  Caspiy Aktau | 18 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 16:23 | 18 |
| 14 |  Kyzylzhar | 18 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 18:26 | 16 |
| 15 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 14:22 | 16 |
| 16 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14:22 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.