Alloa Athletic vs Falkirk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alloa Athleticvs
FalkirkThe model puts Falkirk at 71%. The model leans toward Falkirk. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Alloa Athletic.
- −The head-to-head record favours Alloa Athletic (4-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Alloa Athletic have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Falkirk have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
- The model gives 38% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Alloa Athletic have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Falkirk have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Alloa Athletic have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Falkirk is priced at 1.2. The market leans toward Falkirk.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alloa Athletic or Falkirk?
Our model rates Falkirk as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alloa Athletic vs Falkirk?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Alloa Athletic wins, 2 draws, 0 Falkirk wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Queen of the South | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.