Arbroath vs Montrose: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Arbroathvs
MontroseThe model puts Arbroath at 58%. The model leans toward Arbroath. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Montrose (0-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Arbroath have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Montrose have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Montrose have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Montrose have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Arbroath have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Montrose have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Arbroath is priced at 1.54. The market leans toward Arbroath.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Arbroath or Montrose?
Our model rates Arbroath as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Arbroath vs Montrose?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Arbroath wins, 2 draws, 4 Montrose wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Queen of the South | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Kelty Hearts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 2 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.