Scotland. League Cup

Inverness vs St. Johnstone: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Invernessvs

St. Johnstone

Our predictionSt. Johnstone to win

Model score: Medium · 59/100

Score hint: 0-1

St. Johnstone are on 5 wins in a row. The model puts St. Johnstone at 50%. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours St. Johnstone (1-1-4).

Win probabilities

1 · Inverness25%Draw25%2 · St. Johnstone50%

1 · InvernessDraw2 · St. Johnstone

Full team comparison →

Recent form

InvernessWWWLW

St. JohnstoneWWWWW

Team strength rating

Inverness

St. Johnstone

Most likely scorelines

1-112.1%

0-111.9%

1-29.4%

0-29.3%

1-07.8%

0-07.7%

Expected goals

1.01Inverness

1.55St. Johnstone

Over 2.5 goals47%

Both teams to score50%

Match DNA

Inverness St. Johnstone

Key points

St. Johnstone are on 5 wins in a row.
St. Johnstone have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Inverness are on 3 wins in a row.
St. Johnstone is priced at 1.84.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2St. Johnstone win1.84Fair (+0.9%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	12	9	5	2
1	8	12	9	5	2
2	4	6	5	2
3	1	2	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2St. Johnstone1.84+0.9%

1X2Inverness3.69-0.0%

1X2Draw3.52-0.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

St. Johnstone are on 5 wins in a row. Inverness are on 3 wins in a row.

St. Johnstone have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Inverness have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

The model puts St. Johnstone at 50%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Inverness at 25%.

The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 50% for both teams to score.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →