Dalian Kewei vs Beijing Guoan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dalian Keweivs
Beijing GuoanThe model puts Beijing Guoan at 67%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Beijing Guoan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dalian Kewei have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Beijing Guoan is priced at 1.37.
- The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Beijing Guoan at 67%. The model leans toward Beijing Guoan.
Beijing Guoan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Dalian Kewei have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Beijing Guoan is priced at 1.37. Dalian Kewei is priced at 8.1. The market leans toward Beijing Guoan.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dalian Kewei or Beijing Guoan?
Our model rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dalian Kewei vs Beijing Guoan?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.