Club Atletico Tigre vs Belgrano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Atletico Tigrevs
BelgranoThe model puts Club Atletico Tigre at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Club Atletico Tigre are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Belgrano are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Atletico Tigre have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgrano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Atletico Tigre have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Club Atletico Tigre will be without Arias, Leyes, Rivero, Romero D..
- Belgrano will be without Jeremias Biani, Thiago Charras, Matias Ezequiel Daniele, Falcon, Gonzalez Metilli, Velazquez, Vasquez, Ricca.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Atletico Tigre at 37%. The model puts the draw at 33%. The model puts Belgrano at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Club Atletico Tigre is priced at 2.607. The draw is priced at 2.79. Belgrano is priced at 3.215.
Club Atletico Tigre have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Belgrano have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Club Atletico Tigre have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Belgrano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Belgrano are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Atletico Tigre or Belgrano?
Our model rates Club Atletico Tigre as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Atletico Tigre vs Belgrano?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Club Atletico Tigre wins, 4 draws, 1 Belgrano wins.
Odds movement
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Velez Sarsfield | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Newell's Old Boys | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 6 |  Defensa y Justicia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 7 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Riestra | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 11 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 12 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:3 | 3 |
| 13 |  Union de Santa Fe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 14 |  Boca Juniors | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 15 |  Platense | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:8 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.