Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes de La Plata: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Boca Juniorsvs
Estudiantes de La PlataThe model puts Boca Juniors at 47%. The model leans toward Boca Juniors. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Boca Juniors.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Boca Juniors have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estudiantes de La Plata have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Boca Juniors is priced at 2.107.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Boca Juniors at 47%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Estudiantes de La Plata at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Boca Juniors. Boca Juniors is priced at 2.107. The draw is priced at 2.982. Estudiantes de La Plata is priced at 4.12.
Boca Juniors have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Estudiantes de La Plata have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Boca Juniors have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Boca Juniors are on 2 wins in a row. Estudiantes de La Plata have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Boca Juniors or Estudiantes de La Plata?
Our model rates Boca Juniors as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes de La Plata?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Boca Juniors wins, 1 draws, 2 Estudiantes de La Plata wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Velez Sarsfield | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Newell's Old Boys | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 6 |  Defensa y Justicia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 7 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Riestra | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 9 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 11 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 12 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1:3 | 3 |
| 13 |  Union de Santa Fe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 14 | Boca Juniors | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 15 |  Platense | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:8 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.