Queretaro vs Tigres de la UANL: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Queretarovs
Tigres de la UANLThe model puts Tigres de la UANL at 53%. The model leans toward Tigres de la UANL. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tigres de la UANL.
- −The head-to-head record favours Queretaro (3-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Queretaro have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tigres de la UANL have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Queretaro have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tigres de la UANL is priced at 1.77.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Queretaro at 23%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Tigres de la UANL at 53%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Tigres de la UANL. Queretaro is priced at 4.315. The draw is priced at 3.62. Tigres de la UANL is priced at 1.77.
Queretaro have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Tigres de la UANL have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Queretaro have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Tigres de la UANL have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Queretaro or Tigres de la UANL?
Our model rates Tigres de la UANL as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Queretaro vs Tigres de la UANL?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Queretaro wins, 2 draws, 1 Tigres de la UANL wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Club America | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 5 |  Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Toluca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Guadalajara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 14 | Tigres de la UANL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 15 | Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 17 |  Leon | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.