Juarez vs Pumas UNAM: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Juarezvs
Pumas UNAMThe model puts Juarez at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Juarez.
- +The head-to-head record favours Juarez (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Juarez have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Juarez have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Juarez is priced at 2.45.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Juarez at 42%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Pumas UNAM at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Juarez is priced at 2.45. The draw is priced at 3.2. Pumas UNAM is priced at 2.79.
Juarez have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Pumas UNAM have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Juarez have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Juarez are on 5 wins in a row. Pumas UNAM have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Juarez or Pumas UNAM?
Our model rates Juarez as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Juarez vs Pumas UNAM?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Juarez wins, 1 draws, 1 Pumas UNAM wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Club America | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Toluca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 | Pumas UNAM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 11 |  Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 14 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 | Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Leon | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 17 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.