Puebla vs Guadalajara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pueblavs
GuadalajaraThe model puts Guadalajara at 48%. The model leans toward Guadalajara. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Puebla.
- −The head-to-head record favours Puebla (5-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Puebla have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puebla have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Guadalajara is priced at 1.79.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Puebla at 29%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Guadalajara at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Guadalajara. Puebla is priced at 3.99. The draw is priced at 3.78. Guadalajara is priced at 1.79.
Puebla have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Guadalajara have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Puebla have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Puebla or Guadalajara?
Our model rates Guadalajara as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Puebla vs Guadalajara?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Puebla wins, 0 draws, 1 Guadalajara wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Club America | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Toluca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 9 | Puebla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 11 |  Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 14 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Leon | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 17 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 18 | Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.