Atlas Guadalajara vs Monterrey: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atlas Guadalajaravs
MonterreyThe model puts Monterrey at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Monterrey (0-2-4).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Monterrey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Monterrey is priced at 2.6.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Atlas Guadalajara at 35%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Monterrey at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Atlas Guadalajara is priced at 2.63. The draw is priced at 3.18. Monterrey is priced at 2.6.
Monterrey have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlas Guadalajara are on 2 wins in a row. Monterrey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atlas Guadalajara or Monterrey?
Our model rates Monterrey as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atlas Guadalajara vs Monterrey?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Atlas Guadalajara wins, 2 draws, 4 Monterrey wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Atlas Guadalajara | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Club America | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 5 |  Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 6 | Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Toluca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Guadalajara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Tigres de la UANL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 15 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 17 |  Leon | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.