Cruz Azul vs Atlante: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cruz Azulvs
AtlanteThe model puts Cruz Azul at 64%. The model leans toward Cruz Azul. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Atlante.
- −The head-to-head record favours Atlante (0-1-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cruz Azul have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlante have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul is priced at 1.37.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cruz Azul at 64%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Atlante at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Cruz Azul. Cruz Azul is priced at 1.37. The draw is priced at 4.6. Atlante is priced at 7.9.
Atlante have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cruz Azul have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlante have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cruz Azul or Atlante?
Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cruz Azul vs Atlante?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Cruz Azul wins, 1 draws, 5 Atlante wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Club America | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 5 |  Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Toluca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Guadalajara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 13 | Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Tigres de la UANL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 15 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 17 |  Leon | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.