Green Gully vs Dandenong City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Green Gullyvs
Dandenong CityThe model puts Dandenong City at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Green Gully (3-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Green Gully have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dandenong City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Green Gully have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Dandenong City is priced at 2.1.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Green Gully at 32%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Dandenong City at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Dandenong City. Green Gully is priced at 3.03. The draw is priced at 3.38. Dandenong City is priced at 2.1.
Green Gully have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Dandenong City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Green Gully have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dandenong City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Green Gully or Dandenong City?
Our model rates Dandenong City as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Green Gully vs Dandenong City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Green Gully wins, 2 draws, 1 Dandenong City wins.
League table
Australia. NPL Victorian| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oakleigh Cannons | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 44:18 | 47 |
| 2 |  Hume City | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 40:25 | 40 |
| 3 |  Avondale | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 54:28 | 35 |
| 4 |  Preston Lions | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 30:16 | 33 |
| 5 |  Heidelberg United | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 33:26 | 33 |
| 6 |  South Melbourne | 21 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 31:32 | 32 |
| 7 |  Melbourne City II | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 37:23 | 30 |
| 8 |  Caroline Springs George Cross | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 28:28 | 30 |
| 9 |  St Albans Dinamo | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 24:37 | 24 |
| 10 |  Altona Magic | 21 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 24:36 | 23 |
| 11 | Dandenong City | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 27:29 | 22 |
| 12 |  Bentleigh Greens | 21 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 20:45 | 19 |
| 13 |  Dandenong Thunder | 21 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 23:46 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 21 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 17:43 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.